The New Oil Crisis

I have been a monthly donor and supporter of the Nature Conservancy for years because I believe strongly in their mission and attempts as saving the last wild places from development and exploitation all over the world. To me this is money well invested.

In 2025/Issue 2 of Nature Conservancy there is an article entitled: The Coming Oil Crisis. No, this is not another warning about how fracking is destroying the habitat of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken, which it is, or is it regarding the dangers of a proposed new pipe line to the floodplain and drinking water of millions, which is always a potential danger on many levels.

This oil crisis really is a major red flag for all of those who love to eat because it concerns the most precious oil and that is Olive Oil. Nicholas Wolff, a co-author of a study funded by the Conservancy and partners that studied climate models to project both temperatures and rainfall patterns anywhere on the planet is quoted in the article: “the key takeaway is that we can expect some pretty dynamic changes in terrestrial ecosystems”. Wolff, who is the Director of Climate Science at the Conservancy.

Any American or Canadian tourist that has been fortunate enough to visit Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey and other southern Europe countries probably has, along with numerous photos of grape vines and lemon trees, several photos of Olive tress.

Olive tress have been ubiquitous for thousands of years in these countries and the oil has been used not only for the culinary delights but for various other purposes. Currently the health benefits are being touted as claims that olive oil is essential for preventing heart disease, stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, inflammation, obesity and cancer. Some encourage consuming a half tablespoon of extra virgin olive oil daily for it’s proven benefits. Certainly study after study have shown that adopting the so called Mediterranean diet has many health benefits.

In addition, olive oil is known for its cosmetic benefits. Many commercially available soaps, body washes, and lotions contain olive oil as an ingredient. Small businesses have sprang up everywhere with all kinds of flavored oils. My favorite is the smoked flavored ones!

Of course these healthy benefits of olive oil add to the demand and it has certainly increased the price. (the last time my wife visited Costco I suffered sticker shock) With Donny 2 Dolls and his vast economic expertise featuring on again and off again tariffs it seems the price of olive oil is even more volatile. American don’t know what to do at this point. Do I horde toilet paper and buy pricy olive oil now or risk being left out totally?

But back to the point of the TNC article. Olives may be on of the many casualties of a warming planet. By as early as 2050 the traditional olive growing regions of Mother Earth may not longer be prime areas. Changing climate conditions means the trees are heat stressed and prolonged droughts will weaken the trees and prevent them from defending themselves form disease. Growers are already reporting that the tress are producing smaller fruits, hence less oil per tree. Already there is consideration of planting these relatively slow growing trees further north. Olive oil trees in the Alps in Switzerland and Austria perhaps?

Not to be Debbie Downer but the same can be said for coffee and various nut tress that we have come to love. A world where coffee is limited and my pasta just doesn’t taste as it used to because of scarcity, not to mention that a slice of pecan pie can only be enjoyed at special occasions sure seems like a bummer.

It is difficult at times to be so focused on trying to survive Trump and MAGA that we can easily forget the most important issue of out time. That is climate change. This administration seems hell bent on rolling back all of Biden’s green policies. Much of the benefits of Biden’s climate legislation went to ruby Red MAGA states. So all you climate change denying Trump voters who just want to own the damn Libs may suffer more from Trump and Musk’s chainsaw assault on our government than you anticipated.

The latest studies by climate experts predict that here is a 80 % chance that the planet will break another annual global temperature record in the next five years. If that does not scare you then stop and think about what this means.

Last year our weather was one disaster after another. See may article of below for a quick reminder.

So it is highly likely that 2025 will bring more climate disasters, loss of life, huge property damage, homelessness, crop failures to name a few. Although I’m sure the many MAGA faithful feel totally confident that FEMA in the Trump era will be there to rescue them from wildfires, floods, tornados, hurricanes, extreme heat and drought and then help them rebuild. I’m not so confident myself.

It seems to me that our economy, you know the one that was just humming right along when Trump took office might be at risk if the Republican Senate allows the Big Beautiful Bill to become law. (I’m suddenly cheering for Rand Paul and Ron Johnson?) If the economy experiences stagflation then where will the money come from for FEMA? Where will be the money to fund alternative energy projects? Will home owner insurance even be affordable?

The situation seems bleak at present but it is not hyperbole to state that the future of our planet just may be riding on getting the the US Federal government back into the hands of adults that can recognize that we are facing the existential threat of our time. The biggest producer of greenhouse gases is still the USA and like it or not the World needs the United States to show some leadership and accept the fact to survive we must all limit our consumption going forward. Can a capitalist society, based on growth and massive consumer spending even begin to make these sacrifices? Personally I’m not betting the mortgage. Hope my pessimism is wrong. Stay tuned.

Not sure why but suddenly I’m craving some Italian cuisine. Bon Appetit.